Climate Change Woes: El Niño's Return

After an exceptionally prolonged period of La Niña lasting three years, a significant transition is underway as El Niño makes its anticipated return for the first time in seven years. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that conditions in the tropical Pacific have once again become favorable for the formation of this climate phenomenon, sparking concerns over potential global temperature surges and severe weather patterns.

El Niño, which occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts between nine to twelve months, is characterized by the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern parts of the tropical Pacific. However, it's essential to recognize that anthropogenic climate change has modified the backdrop against which these natural phenomena occur. The implications of El Niño are profound, impacting various regions worldwide with distinct weather changes.

For instance, areas such as southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa, and parts of Central Asia usually see increased precipitation. In stark contrast, regions including Australia, Indonesia, parts of South Asia, Central America, and northern South America may experience severe droughts. Moreover, during the Northern Hemisphere's summer, the warm waters associated with El Niño can exacerbate hurricane activity in the Central and Eastern Pacific while potentially inhibiting hurricane formation in the Atlantic basin. China experiences its unique responses to El Niño, with the southern regions often facing torrential rains and flooding, while the northern areas typically endure prolonged periods of heat and drought.

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The WMO's latest forecast projects a 90% likelihood that the El Niño event will persist into the latter half of 2023. This upcoming occurrence is anticipated to be at least of moderate strength. As El Niño looms, numerous regions around the globe could be bracing for historically the hottest summer yet.

Indeed, July began with record-breaking temperatures, with the global average temperature hitting 17.01°C on July 3, surpassing the previous record set on August 14, 2016. The very next day, a new high was reached, soaring to 17.18°C. With the Northern Hemisphere's summer just commencing, global average temperatures are expected to continue rising through late July and early August, suggesting that these records might soon be eclipsed again.

WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas emphasizes that the emergence of El Niño significantly heightens the chances of breaking temperature records, potentially leading to more extreme hot spells across many regions of the world and in the oceans. According to a report released by the WMO in May, the global temperature could reach unprecedented levels in the coming five years, largely driven by the accumulation of greenhouse gases and the naturally occurring El Niño phenomenon.

Data illustrate alarmingly that the global average temperature in 2022 was approximately 1.15°C higher than the average during the years 1850 to 1900—a baseline representative of pre-industrial conditions. For much of the last three years, the cooling effects of La Niña temporarily offset the overarching trend of long-term warming. However, as La Niña concluded in March 2023, El Niño is set to emerge in the following months, often resulting in increased global temperatures within the year following its onset, which would translate to 2024 in this instance.

The report further indicates that the average annual near-surface temperature is expected to be between 1.1°C and 1.8°C higher than the historical baseline in each year from 2023 to 2027. The rising global temperature impacts, interlinked with other environmental changes, have prompted the WMO's declaration regarding El Niño—a crucial message aimed at governments worldwide, urging them to prepare in advance to mitigate the ramifications on health, ecosystems, and economies. Timely warnings and proactive measures concerning extreme weather events associated with this significant climate phenomenon are vital for saving lives and livelihoods.

Ultimately, the disastrous consequences of extreme weather driven by global climate change have underscored its urgency. According to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), El Niño not only disrupts global economic activities during its occurrence but can also lead to a stagnation of economic growth in the subsequent years. The IMF anticipates that the upcoming pronounced effects of El Niño could inhibit economic activity in tropical nations for a decade. Moving into the next century, intensified El Niño phenomena—exacerbated by climate change—could result in economic losses reaching as high as $84 trillion.

Economically, the impacts of El Niño vary significantly across regions. Major economies such as Australia, Chile, India, Indonesia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa are anticipated to experience short-lived declines in economic activity due to the repercussions of climate shocks.

A team of researchers led by Ramit Debnath from Cambridge University revealed that India faces exceptional burdens on its agriculture, economy, and public health due to lethal heatwaves—disrupting the long-term efforts towards reducing poverty, inequality, and disease in the country.

Australia has also raised alerts, predicting that El Niño will result in even warmer and drier conditions conducive to bushfires. Countries like Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia may face the worst haze in five years due to the anticipated strong El Niño, further stressing the significance of climate change on air quality.

The climatic extremes resulting from El Niño can also drastically elevate commodity prices. Southeast Asia generally faces high temperatures and dryness during El Niño, adversely affecting crop growth, while Australia has warned of potential declines in wheat production. Experts assert that severe El Niño effects may disrupt sugar production in countries like India and Thailand, while Brazil could find its sugarcane harvest impacted as well. Further, Vietnam, known as the world’s second-largest coffee producer, may confront risks due to this weather phenomenon.

Particularly in the upcoming months, specific commodities warrant close attention, as seen during the El Niño events of 2015 to 2016 when sugar prices surged dramatically; prices are already climbing again, with extreme weather likely driving them higher post-incident. Analysts also spotlight rice, a staple food for millions, as a crucial inflationary factor amidst these changes.

Conversely, El Niño often weakens the intensity of the Atlantic hurricane season, usually leading to a downturn in commodity prices. This decline stems from the reduced likelihood of disruptions to oil drilling operations and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, suggesting an increase in global natural gas supply. Notably, the 2015 El Niño resulted in negative impacts on oil prices as it ushered in milder winters affecting demand for heating oil, distillate fuel, and diesel in the U.S.