US November ISM Misses Expectations Significantly

In the labyrinth of the U.S. economy, the service sector has always played a central role, accounting for a significant proportion of the nation's overall GDP. Recently, however, the service industry has been navigating through turbulent waters, as new data highlights a concerning deceleration in its growth momentum. On December 4th, data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed that the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November had dropped to 52.1, significantly lower than the expected 55.7 and a stark decline from the previous month’s 56. This marked the slowest pace of expansion in the service sector in the past three months, raising alarms among economists and business leaders alike.

The ISM Services Index is a crucial indicator, where a reading above 50 signals expansion and anything below indicates contraction. Despite remaining above this threshold, the significant dip of 3.9 points from October to November is a stark reminder of the underlying challenges that the service sector is facing. Particularly, new orders and employment figures have shown weakness, suggesting that the most substantial component of the U.S. economy is losing its dynamism.

Evidently, the service sector PMIs have experienced notable fluctuations throughout the year, exhibiting signs of instability, especially during the second quarter. In April and June, the ISM Services PMIs fell into contraction territory, thereby raising concerns about the overall health of the sector.

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Digging deeper, the sub-indices from the November report demonstrate specific areas of worry. The new orders index fell by 3.7 points, reaching a three-month low at 53.7. This decline indicates that the appetite for new contracts may be waning. Similarly alarming is the backlog of orders, which decreased by 0.6 points, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline, landing at 47.1, a level typically associated with contraction.

The export figures also paint a concerning picture, with new export orders declining by 2.1 points to 49.6, indicating a shrinking demand from international markets. The business activity index fell by 3.5 points, dropping to 53.7, the lowest it has been since August, further complicating the narrative. Employment growth has also shown signs of slowing; the employment sub-index dropped by 1.5 points to 51.5, revealing a deceleration in job creation within the sector. Despite these challenges, the materials and services pricing index increased slightly, suggesting that the service industry continues to grapple with significant cost pressures.

Compounding these issues is the significant drop in supplier delivery times, which fell dramatically by 6.9 points to 49.5, dipping below the neutral mark of 50. This indicates that as demand weakens, suppliers are able to deliver goods more quickly, which again could signal an economic slowdown.

Analysis from media outlets indicates that the combination of the current service sector PMI data and the earlier reported contractions in the manufacturing PMI highlights a crucial narrative: the U.S. economy seems to be entering a phase of stagnation as it approaches the end of 2024. With these indicators pointing towards slowing growth, stakeholders could face challenging decisions moving forward.

Following the release of the ISM Services PMI, the financial markets reacted immediately, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds slipping below 4.23%. This marked a notable change from previous trading levels which hovered above 4.25%. Similarly, the yield on 2-year bonds also saw a sharp decline, reaching close to 4.15% after trading above the 4.18% level prior to the data release.

On the same day, Markit released their own data, which added another layer to the analysis. The final value of the Markit Services PMI for November was reported at 56.1, slightly underperforming compared to expectations of 57 and the initial figure of 57. Moreover, the final value for the Markit Composite PMI stood at 54.9, again falling short of expectations of 55.3.

Chris Williamson, the chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented on the findings, suggesting that improvements in service sector output have mitigated further declines in manufacturing, contributing to an overall acceleration in business activity to its fastest pace in over two and a half years. Recent survey data indicates that the U.S. GDP may be poised to grow at an annualized rate of 2.6% in the fourth quarter, assuming December reflects similar momentum.

Looking ahead, the political landscape appears to be stabilizing, offering a more optimistic economic outlook for 2025, particularly with expectations surrounding the new government and hopes of reduced interest rates. Business leaders have reported an uptick in demand for services, driven by a strong market performance in recent weeks, particularly within the financial services sector. Additionally, robust growth in both business and consumer services in November further compounds this positive sentiment.

However, the paradox remains: despite the encouraging signs of demand, the employment index continues to trend downwards—a disconcerting indication of ongoing supply issues in the labor market. This persistence suggests that wage inflation could remain stubbornly high, making effective regulation challenging.

Notably, while inflationary pressures on service inputs have returned above average levels, the average prices charged by service providers have only seen marginal increases amidst intensifying competition. This phenomenon raises questions on the viability of profit margins for service companies moving forward.

In the feedback gathered from participants in the survey, several insights emerged:

In the information sector, concerns were raised about potential tariffs impacting the pricing of electronics and components for 2025. Meanwhile, those in the professional, scientific, and technical services noted that result variations and potential tariff changes could disrupt inventory levels and lead to increased prices within hospital supply chains. The precarious production state of U.S. startups during the pandemic continues to serve as a cautionary tale, highlighting vulnerabilities that may still plague the sector today.